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Some New Thoughts on Peak Oil Timing from Charlie Maxwell

Mr. Maxwell, the Senior Energy Analyst at Weeden & Co, is one of the world’s  deepest thinkers and most eloquent writers on energy matters and has been for decades.  So it is worth paying attention when Charlie changes his assumptions about the future of oil for the first time in six years, as he discusses in this ASPO article,

To summarize (which is nearly impossible to do) Charlie now believes as follows:

    -  the peak in non-OPEC oil production will occur in 2008 instead of 2010 because Anglola and Equador have become members of OPEC and China is peaking earlier than he had thought.

    -  the public international oil companies will reach a peak of production as a group in 2011 and begin to decline in 2012.

     - the peak of all liquids production will be in 2015 and for all conventional oil (excluding oil sands, etc) it will be 2013. 

Charlie concludes with a comment that, "an energy storm is headed in our direction".   One thing I find absolutely remarkable and staggering about Charlie’s thoughts is how totally in synch they are with the production projections done by Chris Skrebowski.   I have previously quoted Chris’s projection that oil production will fall off a cliff in 2014. 

I strongly recommend that you read Charlie’s entire article.

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This entry was posted on Sunday, January 27th, 2008 at 5:42 pm and is filed under OPEC, Peak Oil. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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2 responses so far ↓

  • 1 GH // Jan 29, 2008 at 10:40 am

    Given that the peak is either past, here, or just around the corner, the question in this investor’s mind is: when will the mainstream grasp that fact? Mr. Maxwell’s article seems to put this point somewhere in late 2012, as it becomes obvious that despite many strong incentives to do so, OPEC is unable to increase output.

    I think an instructive comparison can be made to the tipping point passed a few years ago when the mainstream finally accepted the theory of climate change. This was tipped off first by investment bank money flowing into alt-energy IPOs. This was followed by an explosion first in ethanol stocks (due to new U.S. bio-fuel policies) then solar stocks (due to new European energy policies and subsidies).

    Realization that global Peak Oil is not merely a theory but a oncoming reality, can be expected to follow a similar sequence… and have an impact across the entire spectrum of energy-related companies.

  • 2 Risk Moment RES » Blog Archive » Peak Oil: The Next 5 Years // Mar 1, 2008 at 4:07 am

    […] Maxwell, on the other hand, has predicted that non-OPEC supply will peak in 2008. Compared with Charlie’s vision, this chart is extremely optimistic for 2009, a bit less so for 2010, and still optimistic for 2011 […]

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