According to this report by China View, China consumed a record quantity of oil products in Q1.  It is not surprising that the amount would be a record, but the percentage increase is immense.  Diesel imports were up 600%, incidentally. Some analysts believe Chinese oil use will slow down after the Olympics.  That may happen, but I suspect any slowdown would not be substantial in percentage terms.  After all, in a country of 1.3 billion people with thousands of huge construction projects under way at any given time, …

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A remarkable poll shows that citizens are way ahead of politicians in understanding peak oil.  A huge majority in the U.S. and everywhere else (except Nigeria) say government action is needed to guide us toward a different source of energy because we are running short of oil.  If the U.S. presidential campaigns’ own polls find the same results, it may give the candidates courage to actually discuss energy policy realisticly.  It is clear that the public debate must become honest and realistic before there can be any likelihood of Congress …

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  The following report from Reuters suggests Iraqi reserves could be larger than Saudi reserves and three times as large as currently estimated.  I continue to believe that if there is any chance to mitigate the onset of Peak Oil it is the possibility that Iraq will resolve its politics and pass an oil law this year, issue deals to IOC’s next year and begin substantial increases in production by 2011.  Developing land sites can be accomplished with far greater speed than exploiting the off shore fields of …

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ND Study: 167 Billion Barrels of Oil in Bakken From Rigzone.comAFX News Limited      Monday, April 28, 2008 The Bakken shale formation in North Dakota holds up to 167 billion barrels of oil but only about 1 percent of it can be recovered using current technology, a new study says. The …

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Canadian Oil Sand Trust (COS.WF) report of Q1 results demonstrates the power of higher oil prices to leverage its cash flow.  Based on an average WTI price of $97.82, up from $58.23 in 1Q07 (+68%), operating cash flow rocketed ahead 119%, to C$0.98 vs. C$0.42 per share despite plant outages that caused unit sales to fall by 9%.  

The company’s decision to boost its quarterly dividend by 33% to C$1.00 per share demonstrates its confidence in the continuation of strong cash flow.  Since the company cannot control the price of …

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The March/April edition of Harvard Magazine contains an article by Michael B. McElroy, Professor of Environmental Studies titled, “Saving Money, Oil, and the Climate: Using non-fossil energy sources to power our vehicles.”  It’s a survey course on the future of cars and trucks packed with good data and argumentation on why future considerations of cost and environmental safety will required a move away from petroleum.

Prof. McElroy comes out in pretty much the same place I have.  To whit: eventually cars and trucks will be all-electric and electricity will be supplied …

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Barry Ritholtz recently pulled back the curtain to reveal one of the mechanisms behind the credit crisis.  No surprise: the problem was good old short term personal greed and lack of concern for customers or long term reputation on the part of everyone from the Chairman to the floor clerk.  Here is his fascinating little post:

UBS $37B Write Down, Part II

Posted: 26 Apr 2008 10:26 AM CDT

Buried at the end of the report discussed earlier is the specific criticism of the financial compensation system in place at UBS for traders and …

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They threw the kitchen sink at oil today.  Nearly everything that could push up oil prices happened.  There were three - count ‘em three - significant oil crises.
1. the Bournemouth strike that could take 700 kbpd of North Sea oil off the market for a week or longer is set to start Sunday,

2. Nigerian rebels destroyed pipelines causing Exxon to take 200 kbpd off the market for an indefinite time, and

3. There was some sort of armed conflict rumored to have occurred between an Iranian vessel and a U.S. military …

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Since natural gas is more of a regional market than oil, which is more global, we Norte Americanos tend to estimate future gas prices with reference to factors such as likely Canadian supply and local inventory levels.  But imports of LNG are increasingly important to our continent’s gas price.  To obtain LNG deliveries, our terminals bid against those in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere.  Recently our gas prices have been lower than some abroad thus diverting some LNG shipments away from the the U.S.   In Europe and Asia these days …

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The largest Russian natural gas producer, Gazprom, apparently has heard the concerns of its European customers.  While they have been worrying that there will not be sufficient gas supplies, and while Gazprom’s production has been falling, the company has been spending it’s funds on investments that do not increase gas production.  All that is about to change, according to the following report:

International
Gazprom’s New Focus On Production
Oxford Analytica 04.24.08, 6:00 AM ET

Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom plans to increase investment in gas production and …

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Lehman warns that oil boom will deflate
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 12:33am BST 24/04/2008

The roaring oil boom of the last few months may be on its last legs as economic growth slows hard across the world and a clutch new refineries come into operation, Lehman Brothers has warned in a hard-hitting report.

The build-up in supply is taking place at a time of cooling demand

“Supply is outpacing demand growth,” said Michael Waldron, the US bank’s oil strategist.

“Inventories have been …

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Iraq is looking like the world’s brightest near term hope for stemming high oil prices. It is seems to have raised production about 100 kbpd in March to about 2.4 mbpd, looks to increase it to 3 mbpd by the end of 2008 and hopes to hit 4.5 mbpd by 2013.  Here is a report from Newsweek.
Iraq boosts oil exports — and pressure to pay for rebuilding
By SINAN SALAHEDDIN

BAGHDAD

Iraq boosted its crude oil exports by 3.3 million barrels in March over the previous month, bringing in nearly $15.5 billion, …

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Here’s a happy thought about higher oil prices: maybe if the price goes high enough the military forces of the world will not be able to afford to go out and fight each other.  Of course this won’t happen at $120 a barrel or even $200.  But in five years the price could be $500 - and that could be enough to give some generals second thoughts about going to war.  Conventional thinking is that oil shortages will cause military conflicts.  But I wonder if just the opposite might …

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The report below points to a possible rationale for higher oil prices in the short term.
Peak oil in Russia?
 The ever-increasing oil price is not likely to result in increased output, with most suppliers experiencing flat output and Russian production in steep decline.

Having reached yet another record high of over USD 117 a barrel this morning, experts believe the price has not yet hit its peak and will continue rising. BP Capital founder T. Boone Pickens has reportedly said he did not expect supply to exceed 85 …

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Here is a detailed analysis and discussion of the significance of the Bakken formation from The Oil Drum.  

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