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Russian Oil Production is Declining

The following report published by Commodity Online says that Russian oil production may have peaked in 2006 and in any case has been declining in recent months.

Commodity Online
MOSCOW: Oil production in Russia, the second largest oil exporter in the world, is coming down drastically, says a new study.
Studies on Russian oil production by Aram Mäkivierikko say that the country has not been able to increase its oil production for three months in a row now. The production have been hanging slightly below the maximum of 9,93 Mbpd that was reached last year in October.
The report said if their oil production is stagnating, the impact is therefore going to be significant. Output has declined by between 0.5% to 1.5% for most major Russian producers, including the state-controlled Rosneft. Only LUKOIL and Tatneft managed to increase their output by 0.1% and 0.6% respectively.
Oil is a heavily used natural resource with a limited supply. Russia is one of the largest oil producers and the second largest oil exporting country in the world. Many surrounding countries are dependent on Russian energy. Swedish oil import from Russia has grown from 5% to 35% during 2001-2005.
The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 caused the Russian oil production to drop by 50%. The production is currently growing again – but how will it develop in the future?
This report studies different scenarios for Russian oil production and export based on three different estimates of how much oil Russia has left today (70, 120 or 170 Gb), combined with estimates about how fast Russia can produce the oil (a depletion rate of 3%, 4.5% or 6%).
In the worst case, Russian oil production and also the oil export will peak very soon or has already done so in 2006. In the best case, a constant export can be held until 2036. It is not likely that the Russian production will increase more than 5-10% over today’s level.

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This entry was posted on Sunday, April 13th, 2008 at 7:10 pm and is filed under Peak Oil, Russia, oil supply. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

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