I use the phrase “Crunch Time” to denote the period after Peak Oil during which oil prices are so high due to production shortfalls that the normal functioning of economic activity is curtailed.  Not only are the poor - and eventually the middle class - kept from buying the oil products they need but industry’s capacity to ameliorate the problem by making what is needed to free society from the grip of oil is also greatly slowed, thereby extending the Crunch Time. 

Such necessary products fall in two categories.  First are those consumers can use to free themselves of oil: cars, trucks, and trains that operate on electricity instead of gasoline or diesel.  Second is the capital equipment needed to make both such consumer items and to obtain more oil and other energy sources. Steel is one of the inputs to those products. 

A hint of Crunch Time is in this report from Brazil and a sample is also described in today’s Wall Street Journal:

The headline is, “Fast-Rising Steel Prices Set Back Big Projects.”  The article starts, “Relentless increases in the price of steel are halting or slowing major construction projects world-wide and investments in shipbuilding and oil-and-gas exploration”

Stripped of the human dimension the essential formula is:

   global demand growth -> high oil, food and steel prices -> high costs to build rigs and ships -> higher energy prices -> higher oil, food and steel prices 

This mechanical process of higher prices cycling up the line and shortages of things needed to make other things compounding the dysfunction is only the start. Then, the human dimension supercharges the process. 

As the Journal points out, higher steel prices are now causing strikes in Turkey, cancellation of infrastructure projects in India, and government interventions in the private sector via price controls, nationalizations, and export controls - all of which cause other economic dislocations.  Not the least of today’s dysfunctional outcomes is a slowdown now occurring in the production of equipment needed to find and produce oil.

As production slows, companies lay off workers.  While layoffs tend to reduce ultimate consumer demand for products, in the short term shortages of manufacturing inputs just increase demand for those inputs further.   Thus society’s initial efforts to increase manufacturing capacity turns into an effort to simply maintain capacity - or stop if from freezing up. 

As the process of rising costs and slowing production reinforces itself it gains speed like an ocean storm.  As the Journal reports, “Last year, it took six months for steel prices to rise $100 a ton. Now, prices are moving that much in a month.”

The vicious cycle we are seeing today was initially caused by rapid growth and improved living standards in China, India and other poor countries as brought on by globalization.  The process was initially demand driven.  It can - and eventually it will - be corrected by a significant economic slowdown.

But the real Crunch Time will be caused by Peak Oil, the inability of the world to produce any greater flow of oil.  What makes the real Crunch Time so vicious is that a simple recession will not cure the problem.  It is likely that human inputs like violence and hoarding will only make the problem of insufficient oil even more acute.  That is why today’s mini-Crunch is so tame compared with the Crunch Time that will occur after Peak Oil.

The scenario of shortages reducing society’s ability to function is why the Hirsch Report concluded that in order to have a fairly painless transition from petroleum based transport to electricity based transport the world would need to start to make the transition about 20 years before Peak Oil started.  Today, when we no longer have 20 years before Peak Oil, we are getting a small preview of the conditions to which the Hirsch Report was anticipating. 

Here is a summary of the conclusions of Hirsch Report:

“A scenario analysis was performed, based on crash program
implementation worldwide – the fastest humanly possible. Three starting
dates were considered:
1. When peaking occurs;
2. Ten years before peaking occurs; and
3. Twenty years before peaking.
The timing of oil peaking was left open because of the considerable
differences of opinion among experts. Consideration of a number of
implementation scenarios provided some fundamental insights, as follows:
• Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program
action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more
than two decades.
• Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil
peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall
roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked.
• Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking offers
the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall.”

Here is the Journal’s story outlining today’s mini-version of Crunch Time: 

Fast-Rising Steel Prices Set Back Big Projects

ArcelorMittal’s Net Rises but
Shipyards, Builders Feel Pinch

By ROBERT GUY MATTHEWS
May 15, 2008

Relentless increases in the price of steel are halting or slowing major construction projects world-wide and investments in shipbuilding and oil-and-gas exploration, setting the stage for a potential backlash against steelmakers.

In Turkey, a construction association said this week it will begin a 15-day strike in eight cities Thursday to press steelmakers to cut their prices, which have more than doubled locally since late last year.

In New Delhi, India, an ambitious bridge project has been put on hold because of steel-related cost overruns, and contractors are postponing or reining in construction of much-needed housing for the poor, prompting the Indian government to freeze steel prices for the next three months.

Venezuela, aiming to control prices, renationalized its largest steelmaker and is limiting exports. Oil executives in the U.S., meanwhile, say costly steel is threatening their energy exploration efforts.

Globally, steel prices are up 40% to 50% since December, and industry executives say they haven’t hit their peak. On Wednesday, ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steelmaker by volume, boosted prices by €120 ($186), or 20%, a metric ton in Europe, citing increases in its own costs — from iron ore to energy and transportation.

“We have not yet seen that prices have peaked, what we have seen is the costs increasing every month,” said ArcelorMittal Chief Executive Lakshmi Mittal on a conference call with reporters.

Iron-ore prices have risen 71% this year. Two other crucial steelmaking ingredients, coking coal and scrap steel, have doubled in price. The run-ups are part of a broader surge in raw-materials prices amid tight supplies and soaring global demand, fueled in part by the rapid industrialization of China, India and other developing nations.

ArcelorMittal said Wednesday that its earnings grew 5.4% to $2.37 billion in the first quarter from $2.25 billion a year earlier. Both sales and shipments grew sharply as the Luxembourg-based company sold more steel in emerging markets.

The world’s voracious appetite for steel shows little sign of easing. In Turkey, a new shipyard, once completed, will need 100,000 tons of steel a year. And demand in the U.S. is rising, despite a sluggish economy.

While still in a position of pricing power, steelmakers are concerned that over time, their high prices will affect sales. “There will be impact on demand, and that is not a good development for the steel industry,” said Aditya Mittal, chief financial officer of ArcelorMittal, on a separate conference call.

As a result, steelmakers are taking steps to cut their costs. To shield themselves from higher raw-material prices, more of them are acquiring their own iron-ore and coal mines or deposits, as well as producers of scrap steel. Nippon Steel Corp. and other Japanese steelmakers announced this month that they would accelerate cost-cutting efforts, which could include layoffs and developing cheaper steel substitutes.

The industry is also consolidating, which should allow producers to become more efficient and gain economies of scale that could ultimately result in more pricing stability and fewer, larger players. In recent months, India’s Tata Steel Ltd. and Essar Steel Holdings Ltd. have made major acquisitions, as have Russia’s Evraz Group SA and Sweden’s SSAB Svenskt Stl AB. Even so, the world’s top-five steelmakers still account for just 18% of the world’s steel supplies.

Some steelmakers also are experimenting with ways to make their products less expensive, in an effort to keep customers from switching to less-expensive substitutes like aluminum or high-strength plastics. Finnish stainless-steel maker Outokumpu Oyj, which makes steel for appliances, has come up with a way to reduce the nickel content of its stainless steel to make it cheaper.

But until such changes take hold, steel prices will likley continue to increase.

Builders recently warned officials in Turkey, which rests in an earthquake zone, that rising steel prices have prompted some contractors to use cheaper, inferior-grade steel, threatening the quality of their buildings.

Some nations, meanwhile, are hoarding steel by erecting export barriers. Last week, India imposed a 15% duty on exported steel. Countries that don’t make enough of the metal are slashing import taxes in an effort to attract more. Last month, Iran announced it was lowering its import tax on rebar steel, used in new buildings and roads, to 9% from 20%.

The impact of high steel prices is rippling through industries from shipbuilding to energy exploration. Shipbuilders, who buy vast quantities of high-end plate steel are getting hammered, and analysts say steel-supply problems are slowing the pace of construction, especially at smaller shipyards like South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co.

In April, an executive of Royal Dutch Shell PLC told a House committee that steel, which is needed to make drilling equipment and pipelines, and other raw-material costs were hampering efforts to find new energy sources. These costs “are a major challenge for oil and gas companies and are contributing to the delays and postponements of many projects,” according to Cambridge Energy Research Associates, a leading energy-research company.

Cellphone users could eventually feel the pinch. Eric Steinmann, development manager at wireless carrier NTCH Inc., which operates under the Clear Talk brand, says steel costs for each of the about 100 cellphone tower poles his company builds annually doubled to about $30,000 last year.

Robert Griggs, owner of Missouri-based Trinity Products Inc., a maker of steel pipes, tubes and rebar for bridges, said he tells his customers he can only guarantee prices for two weeks. Last year, it took six months for steel prices to rise $100 a ton, he said. Now, prices are moving that much in a month.

Shifting to lower cost materials isn’t an easy option for steel buyers, either. It takes years to retool auto and appliance stamping and dye machines, currently engineered for steel products. Also the cost of alternatives, such as aluminum and certain plastics, is increasing.

Write to Robert Guy Matthews at robertguy.matthews [Email address: robertguy.matthews #AT# wsj.com - replace #AT# with @ ]

Tags: peak oil energy investments

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