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Megaproject Update
The above chart is just one of the very many fascinating parts of a post from The Oil Drum dealing with the latest results of the Wikipedia Megaprojects endeavor. This is a continuing effort to gather all possible information about oil production expected to come from significant new oil fields in the foreseeable future.
I see this graph as a general road map of the future, not an “accurate” picture. The reasons, as the post discusses in far more detail, is that there is always a tendency for new oil field projects to become delayed. This trend has recently been exacerbated by the lack of available rigs and personnel for developing new fields.
Additionally, as fields get closer to development their yields become known with much greater certainty.
It is likely that some of the production projected for 2008 - 2010 will be pushed back into the 2011 - 2015 time frame. For example, start up of the Kashagan field that is supposed to produce well over 1 mb/d was recently postponed from 2010 to 2013, and I would not bet on it happening then.
To put these numbers in perspective, keep in mind the following:
1. Annual decline in production from existing fields is currently running +/- 4 mb/d. Some analysts believe declines are increasing, perhaps at an increasing rate. These declines are net of new oil produced from old fields due to greater and enhanced recovery efforts spurred by higher prices.
2. New oil “demand” is running in the 1 - 2 mb/d per year range.
3. There will be some additional production from smaller fields that are not included in the megaprojects data.
4. All of this will be adjusted up or down by global political events.
Tags: peak oil energy investments
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4 responses so far ↓
1 paultaut // Jul 4, 2008 at 1:01 pm
to tell the truth, I don’t have a clue as to the direction of our economy. I mean whether it will just be a recession or develop into a depression.
The least of our worries will be stagflation. That being said, Congress and the candidates still have their heads completely buried in the sand and will wait for committee report after report.
Oil supply/refining projects have to be defined by Law as National Security Issues. Any impediment of same is punishable by law. No Trials or Appeals. Suspend the powers of the EPA. Worry about the environment after the fact, not before.
Hundreds of thousands of new jobs accross the country. Every state must have a refinery. Use Emminant Domain as necessary. No more “not in my back yard” crap.
But none of the above or similar will happen. Too bad, this was once the Country of the People and for the People.
Happy Fourth of July.
2 Simon // Jul 4, 2008 at 6:21 pm
Thanks for this post Jim. I’ve bookmarked the Wikipedia Megaprojects page and I’m now a member at the oil drum.
3 GH // Jul 5, 2008 at 7:37 pm
PaulTaut,
Spoken like a true addict. You’d sell your mother into slavery if it got you cheap gasoline.
4 Tony // Jul 22, 2008 at 8:54 am
I’m not so sure every state in the U.S. needs to have a refinery (first commentor). With a little conservation by the populus, refining capacity will equal demand (we are close and expansions are getting us there). What’s needed is a mix of refining output into more middle distillates (diesel, heating oil, etc).
Then we can get the fuel efficient diesels here in larger quantites.
Mega projects are needed to stay up with the reduction in supplies and to try to keep pace with increasing demand (worldwide).
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