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Oil Relief - And Its Timing - Come Into Better Focus
Much is written about “alternative energy” and the relief from high oil prices that might come from solar, wind, nuclear or some other approach. But all of these are “solutions” to a problem that as of now does not exist: a lack of electricity.
Our oil problem is caused by too much use of petroleum, not a lack of electricity. The only way we are going to solve the oil problem is to drive cars that do not include the current petroleum based power plants and to transition freight and some personal transportation to electric powered rail. So we need plug in hybrid electric cars that will start to appear in 2010. Even better would be all electric “city cars” such as what is being developed by Israel and Denmark.
The cavalry is coming. The following dramatic news about Mercedes, if true, shows a forward thinking determination on the part of a major car company to meet the future head on that puts a real “solution” to the oil problem within view. Granted we are not talking about tomorrow. But still the Mercedes idea would put a time frame on a total revision of our car propulsion problem. I suspect a total conversion of the fleet would take about 15 years beyond the 2015 “no petroleum” model year.
Incidentally, will we need more electrical generating capacity at some point? Probably. But let’s not forget that when LED lighting becomes the rule - probably within five years - we’ll be able to save 15% +/- of all the electricity we currently use. Moreover, to the extent that cars are refueled in the off-peak night time hours no additional capacity is required.
Mercedes to cut petroleum out of lineup by 2015
By Jaymi Heimbuch Posted Thu Jun 26, 2008 9:23am PDT
In less than 7 years, Mercedes-Benz plans to ditch petroleum-powered vehicles from its lineup. Focusing on electric, fuel cell, and biofuels, the company is revving up research in alternative fuel sources and efficiency.
The German car company has a few new power-trains in the line-up that European journalists have had the opportunity to test out in the Mercedes facility in Spain. One vehicle includes the F700, powered by a DiesOtto engine that combines HCCI and spark ignition to get nearly the same efficiency as diesel, but minus the expensive after-treatment systems.
The engine can run on biofuels, and we may have a purchasable vehicle by 2010 — a year that seems to be popular for the debut of a lot of new alternative fuel car models, making ’08 and ’09 simply thumb-twiddling years for consumers. I don’t know, maybe car makers just like the roundness of “2010.” The company’s next big step will be to launch a Smart electric car which is fuel and emission-free.
Anyway, Mercedes is looking into electric vehicles, both battery-powered and fuel-cell powered. Not only are models in development, but we’ve also seen the company making steps towards its zero-petroleum goal right now, from better cabs in London to li-ion battery improvements. The company also has about 100 Smart electric cars undergoing testing in London, with that favorite 2010 year as the projected market release date.
Mercedes is making serious investments, already putting nearly $4 million into the pot of its long-term Sustainable Mobility plan, with another nearly $1.4 billion going in before 2014.
While car models may be able to run on fuels other than gasoline or diesel, we have yet to find a method of both running and producing vehicles entirely free of fossil fuels. I’m waiting for a mainstream car line that creates renewable fuel, clean-running vehicles out of 100% recycled materials in plants run on 100% renewable, clean power … Will I even be alive when that finally happens? I have hope.
Via AutoblogGreen, The Sun; Photo Leonid Mamchenkov
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Tags: peak oil energy investments
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3 responses so far ↓
1 KV // Jul 11, 2008 at 8:44 pm
Agree completely.
My fears are just as we are ready to make a transition to biodisel etc. the oil prices will fall and gasoline will be cheap and nobdoy will buy these cars only to repeat the past.
2 Jim Kingsdale // Jul 12, 2008 at 5:38 am
Not to worry. The price of oil will not be going down for a long, long time - at least not after 2010.
3 Paul // Jul 14, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Could it be that the “dramatic Mercedes news” is based on a misunderstanding or mistranslation ? Nobody else seems to have heard of Daimler’s intention to stop petrol cars in 7 years. The article contradicts itself when pointing out that Mercedes invests into a next generation petrol combustion enginge, the DiesOtto (thought to be launched in 2012).
In general I am not at all sure that a fast transition to electric cars or even hybrids is essentially a done deal. Take some very recent statements from real insiders:
Nissan: Taro Hagiwara, Research Center Atsugi: “There is no alternative to fuel cell technology “(for non-fossile fuel cars with acceptable properties).
Bosch: Bernd Bohr, Head of Automotive Section: “We estimate that in 2015 worldwide 2.5 million hybrid cars and 0.8 million electric cars will be produced, from a total of 80 million cars. Plug-in hybrids are not an ideal solution due to weight and cost. Diesel cars with 30% higher efficiency than petrol cars will increase market share, which is already 80% in France”.
GM: Carl-Peter Forster, Head of GM Europe: “An electric car from GM will be available in Europe in 2012. Its price may be in the order of Euro 10,000 higher than comparable combustion engine models”.
How popular will be an electric car with a realistic range of perhaps 100-150miles (and that’s in summer, not during Chicago winters) which costs $10,000 more than a real car ? How popular will be a true plug-in hybrid (with a petrol engine that not only charges the battery) which will cost at least $15,000 more than a conventional car ? The low market penetration estimate from Bosch may not be too far off (Bosch, whose logo is an electric motor, is also a member of a well funded German consortium on Lithium battery technology and therefore a true insider).
I see a different transition scenario: A transition to diesel (or DiesOtto, if successful) will save 30% fuel and will increase the cost per car by $1500-$2000. More efficient automatic transmissions or gear boxes (already available, but like diesel mainly used in Europe where petrol costs $10/gallon) will add further 5% efficiency and $500 cost. People will buy slighly smaller cars and give up the thrill of some horsepower which saves another 10%. And they will drive slighly less or less aggressively for a further 5% savings. These affordable “low hanging fruits” reduce fuel consumption by 50%. If that’s not enough, there is the option of adding a natural gas tank for dual fuel combustion engines, which costs around $3000 per car. Therefore, while true plug-in hybrids or electric cars with acceptable range will eventually become available and affordable, there seem to be much less costly or inconvenient options for the next 10-20 years.
Or is there a flaw in my reasoning ?
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