I recently wrote that China is experiencing severe shortages of electricity caused by coal shortages.   A number of other developing economies, particularly in Asia, are seeing the same problem.  As I wrote earlier, such shortages may well increase Asian demand for diesel fuel to run emergency generators.

Here is a report from Reuters detailing exactly where the Chinese shortages are occurring and which provinces are likely to turn to diesel generators to ameliorate their problems.

worst hit by power shortages

Fri Jul 11, 2008 10:33am BST

 July 11 (Reuters) - Over a dozen Chinese provinces have
begun rationing power supplies as coal shortages and
unprofitable electricity tariffs curb generation, driving the
country toward its worst summer power shortages since 2004.

 The government has forecast a peak power shortfall of 10
gigawatts for the summer, about 1.4 percent of capacity, but a
handful of provinces alone are forecasting more than double
this.

 The following table details the situation in six of the
worst hit provinces. Production and GDP figures are for the end
of 2007, all power figures are in gigawatts (GW).
 SHANXI PROVINCE
 Population (mln):            33.9
 Pct of national GDP:          2.3
 Forecast Shortage(GW):        5.0
 Total Power Capacity (GW):   34.4
 Power Fuel Use:              Largely coal
 Metals Production Profile:   Produces nearly 9 percent of
China's aluminium, and 5 percent of China's crude steel.
 Industrial Profile:          Top coal and big metals
producer.
 Remedy:                      Rationing. This northern Chinese
province is too poor, and its industry too energy-thirsty for
diesel generators to be a realistic option. It has little
hydropower and no neighbours with surplus power for imports.
 SHAANXI PROVINCE
 Population (mln):            37.5
 Pct of national GDP:          2.2
 Forecast Shortage (GW):       1.3
 Total Power Capacity (GW):   11.5*
 Power Fuel Use:              Largely coal
 Metals Production Profile:   Small amounts of crude steel and
non-ferrous metals output.
 Industrial Profile:          Significant coal resources
 Remedy:                      Rationing. Like neighbouring
Shanxi, it has little alternative when its supplies run low.
 GUANGDONG PROVINCE
 Population (mln):            94.5
 Pct of national GDP:         12.4
 Forecast Shortage (GW):       6.5
 Total Power Capacity* (GW):  68.0
 Power Fuel Use:              Hydropower, fuel oil, coal,
natural gas and nuclear power.
 Metals Production Profile:   About 2 percent of China's
steel.
 Industrial Profile:          Leading export, manufacturing
hub.
 Remedy:                      Guangdong can increase fuel oil
generation when supplies run low, it imports hydropower from
neighbouring provinces and many of its factories have their own
individual diesel generators. It still rations power however.
 SHANDONG PROVINCE
 Population (mln):            93.7
 Pct of national GDP:         10.5
 Forecast Shortage (GW):       7.6
 Total Power Capacity (GW):   55.4
 Power Fuel Use:              Mostly coal, growing number of
wind farms and some hydropower.
 Metals Production Profile:   About 9 percent of China's steel
 Industrial Profile:          Big agricultural base,
significant manufacturing base with strong links to S. Korea
and Japan.
 Remedy:                      Shandong is taking advantage of
its coastline to boost wind power, and as a relatively big coal
producer it can try and keep more of its output within
provincial borders. Diesel generators are an option for some.
 ZHEJIANG PROVINCE
 Population (mln):            33.9
 Pct of national GDP:          3.0
 Forecast Shortage (GW):      >3.0
 Total Power Capacity (GW):   33.7*
 Power Fuel Use:              Natural gas, coal
 Metals Production Profile:   Some steel products
 Industrial Profile:          Major manufacturing hub known for
small, privately owned factories.
 Remedy:                      Rationing, diesel generators
 SICHUAN PROVINCE
 Population (mln):            81.3
 Pct of national GDP:          4.3
 Forecast Shortage:            2.0
 Total Power Capacity:        30.3
 Power Fuel Use:              Hydropower, coal.
 Metals Production Profile:   Major zinc and lead producer
 Industrial Profile:          Big agricultural production base,
especially for pork. Rich in natural gas and hydropwer. Not a
major export hub.
 Remedy:                      Sichuan -- usually a net power
exporter -- is importing power from its neighbours after a
massive earthquake in May devastated swathes of the province,
destroying or putting out of action mines and dams.
 *This figure covers only generating capacity connected to the
provincial grid, leaving out small-scale generation and
stand-alone plants that supply local users only.
 (Reporting by Emma Graham-Harrison, Jim Bai, Jason Subler,
Rujun Shen and Beijing newsroom)

© Thomson Reuters 2008 All rights reserved.

Tags: peak oil energy investments

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