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Oil Price Predicted to Reach Crisis Proportions in 2010
A well-respected Dutch consultancy supported by substantial corporate interests including Shell has issued a report that warns of severe oil price shocks starting in 2010. As my readers know, I have been suggesting a similar time frame for severe oil shortages based on my reading of predictions for supply constraints by many analysts and by the Wikipedia Megaprojects works.
I have not analyzed the report in depth but my reading of the summary found aspects that were confusing. For example, the report blames Mexico and Russia but not Nigeria for failing to fully exploit their oil reserves. It points to Iraq as the country with the greatest potential to increase supply in the medium term, but it fails to focus on technological developments that could rapidly move the world’s transportation system toward electronic propulsion.
The report is largely concerned with the global financial system, its dislocations due to oil transfer payments, and the possibilities for recycling those funds.
Here is a news report about the Dutch report:
Dutch report warns of oil crisis in 2010
Wednesday 30 July 2008
A sustained period of worldwide oil scarcity will begin sooner than generally forecast and could spark off military conflicts in Africa, according to the Dutch Clingendael institute for international relations, reports Wednesday’s Volkskrant.
According to Clingendael, the oil shortage will begin to bite in 2010, five years earlier than predicted by the International Energy Agency.
The consequences are outlined in Clingendael’s report entitled Oil turbulence in the next decade.
pdf version: http://www.clingendael.nl/publications/2008/20080700_ciep_energy_jesse.pdf
Tags: peak oil energy investments
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5 responses so far ↓
1 paultaut // Aug 3, 2008 at 3:07 am
T. Boone seems to imply that our Government is somehow buying $600 Billion worth of Foreign Oil annually. That this money could be used elsewhere.
The Government is buying zilch but would like very much to Tax those that are. Big Oil is the main culprit. They are the ones at fault. They are putting upward pressure on oil by buying it for their refineries.
If we tax them, then they will have less money to buy oil and this will depress the price for the rest of the world. If we take away all of their money, we will no longer be dependent on Foreign Oil.
This is definitely the Solution. Instead of blaming Big Oil, we will be able to point the Finger at Big, Stupid Congressional Leaders. But at least the finger pointing will be going in the right direction.
The biggest downside to letting the Government to buy the Oil themselves, is that the Tree Huggers will have to find somone else to blame.
2 Tubaplayer // Aug 3, 2008 at 2:45 pm
@paultaut
So how do you intend to run your SUV?
3 Isaac // Aug 3, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Its not the oil companies, or the government, that is buying the oil. It is Jim, Paulaut, Tubaplayer, me, and the rest of us. Its the collective us.
Anyway, thanks Jim, and keep the threads coming.
4 R.Schmitt // Aug 3, 2008 at 6:30 pm
We need an energy policy on the - scale- of FDRs New Deal. Drilling is useless…the problem of scarcity is to large to address by even large domestic pools. To save 1/10 of 1 cent in 10 years off the price of gas is trivial….but those stocks are important to our military….
With recent developments the country should make haste transitioning to solar/ wind/ perhaps nuclear electricity generation (storage) and a hydrogen transportation system.
The Volt should be critiqued by Oak Ridge and Livermore Lab, imporved, and sold with a subsidy gaurenteeing rapid acceptance.
The general public has no idea of the catastrophic consequences of peak oil. Merely converting some food stocks to ethanol has jeaprodized the lives of a billion people….Our politicians have a duty to inform. This is one challenge where we dare not be behind the curve.
5 paultaut // Aug 3, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Tubaplayer, I never learned to drive, have used public Trans. whenever possible. You might get the chance to do the same.
The people buy oil derivatives not the oil itself. There is plenty of oil in various forms but not many refineries that can handle them all. Double the amount of state-of-the-art refineries in the US and you will see a dramatic decrease in the prices for them.
But the very same people who complain the most about prices will be found protesting the construction of a refinery in their vicinity. The not in My Back Yard syndrome.
This is the sort of advertising which should be put on the airwaves and by the Media. A picture of an idle refinery with thousands of rusting SUVs around it would be better than T. Boone’s attempt to play both sides against the middle.
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