According to the report posted below from Reuters, OPEC production may be running nearly 1mb/d above their target.  A Geneva consultancy that tracks tanker shipments estimates August OPEC production at nearly 33 mb/d, up almost 500 kb/d compared with July due to increases from Angola and Iran.  If true, the increased production would support claims by Iran that the market is being over-supplied and might help explain recently lower oil prices.

OPEC output rising in August - petrologistics

Fri 22 Aug 2008, 10:15 GMT

By Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC oil output is expected to rise in August by 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to higher supply from Iran and Angola, industry consultant Petrologistics said on Friday.

The estimate indicates the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is pumping almost 1 million bpd more than its target and comes as some members are voicing concern that world oil markets are oversupplied.

All 13 OPEC members are expected to pump 32.95 million bpd in August, up from a revised 32.5 million bpd in July, Conrad Gerber, head of the Geneva-based company, told Reuters.

“Angola and Iran have the increases. Everybody else is steady or down a bit,” Gerber said.

Iran accounted for most of the increase. OPEC’s second-largest producer supplied less oil than expected in July due to limited demand for its heavier crude oil grades, which meant more crude was held in storage.

Output in August is forecast to rebound to 4.05 million bpd from 3.65 million bpd in July due to higher sales, Gerber said.

Angola is also pumping more as new offshore fields come on stream. Output is forecast to climb to 2.07 million bpd in August, up 60,000 bpd from July, he said.

The increase in OPEC output coincides with a decline in oil prices to about $120 a barrel from a record high of $147.27 in July. U.S. crude was down 64 cents at $120.54 at 1019 GMT.

SAUDI SUPPLY STEADY

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, is expected to pump 9.45 million bpd in August, down slightly from 9.47 million bpd in July. That is less than the 9.7 million bpd that Riyadh said it would produce in July.

OPEC has kept official supply limits unchanged at meetings this year, saying consumers have enough and has blamed factors beyond supply and demand for oil’s rally, such as the weakening U.S. dollar.

It meets to review supply on September 9 in Vienna. Iran has blamed oversupply for the drop in crude prices and said OPEC should trim output should demand slow down.

The Petrologistics estimate suggests the 12 OPEC members bound by deals to set supply policy, all except Iraq, are producing 30.62 million bpd, more than their informal target of 29.67 million bpd.

Iraq is forecast to supply 2.33 million bpd in August, a slight decline from 2.35 million bpd in July.

Petrologistics measures OPEC supply, which excludes oil produced but sent into storage rather than exported, by tracking tanker shipments. OPEC itself does not issue timely estimates of its members’ output.

Tags: peak oil energy investments

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