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US oil demand down
Revised July oil demand lowest in 11 years: EIA
Fri Oct 3, 2008 1:19pm EDT
By Tom Doggett
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. oil demand in July fell to the lowest level for the month in 11 years, with consumption 736,000 barrels per day less than previously estimated and down 1.335 million bpd from a year earlier, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Crude oil and gasoline prices hit record highs in July, and U.S. motorists reduced driving for the ninth month in a row.
Based on final numbers released this week, U.S. oil demand in July was revised down 3.7 percent from the EIA’s early estimate of 20.148 million bpd to the agency’s final demand figure of 19.412 million bpd, down 6.4 percent from 20.747 million bpd a year earlier.
The final numbers, in the EIA’s monthly petroleum supply report, always differ from initial estimates in the weekly report.
The monthly report reflects information on petroleum products supplied from all U.S. energy companies, while the weekly report surveys the biggest companies which represent about 90 percent of the market.
Gasoline demand for July was revised down by 331,000 bpd, or 3.5 percent, to 9.072 million bpd, the lowest level for the month since 2001 and down 568,000 bpd from a year earlier.
U.S. highway travel fell by 3.6 percent, or nearly 10 billion miles in July compared to the same period last year, according to a separate report this week from the Transportation Department.
The decline was less than the drop of 5 percent, or 12.2 billion miles, reported for June.
Tags: peak oil energy investments
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18 responses so far ↓
1 Rich // Oct 9, 2008 at 11:53 pm
Jim, great site, have been a reader for quite some time. Just wanted to say “good call” on largely getting out of the Oil market a short while back. I’m sitting on the sidelines for the most part as well. Only question now is how / when to get back in. With OIH, XES, etc. down 50%, they seem ripe for some serious growth when things take off again. My current plan is to dollar cost average over the next few years. However, I’m a little worried I’ll miss a huge jump as the sector is prone to.
2 Bruce // Oct 10, 2008 at 3:30 am
Rich,
The problem with timing is that it is claimed the stock market is ahead of the real world by six months and Mr. Kingsdales and others are ahead of the stock market. So Jim may have taken a hit lately and is not feeling good about it since he bought in to soon but you need chips to play and my guess is that the market has/will hit bottom very soon (it over did it is what I really think). In todays world things happen very fast yet takes a long time. Remember, always buy low and sell high it’s so simple. Keep some chips and keep some cash rainy days are ahead.
3 KV // Oct 10, 2008 at 4:29 am
Blomberg: Oil $82.50.
EIA data nearly a week old.
Demand erosion is continuing.
Has anybody seen cars with those temporary tags? Yesterday, we tried to spot one, could not! Very unusual for my area - land of BMWs and Infinities, Volvos and Mercedes.
Yesterday, went to Homedepot at about 4:15 pm to find it mostly empty. Not good.
All this points to a massive layoff between Nov-Dec 08, setting up the perfect storm for whoever is elected. No economy, no jobs, no energy, no money anywhere, country broke, banks broke, yet, we will go on listening to somebody’s sexual frustration using billions of dollars hardware, and in the same vein, using billions up on billions for satellite guided drones to shoot two guys in turbans only to find them to be children.
I voted early. For the first time in my life, I state who I voted for: Obama-Biden.
4 paultaut // Oct 10, 2008 at 6:27 am
Jim, I hope this is ok.
I live in a burb of Chicago, Ill. and am 64 yrs old.
If others don’t mind posting, I’d like to know the locations we are posting from, basically to see if our views reflect a cross section of the country. Ages are useful from the perspective of young “I’m gonna live for ever, enthusiasm” to older “the end is nigh, life is hard and then you die”.
The sectors we live in allow us to make judgements about the economy in our area more so than any pundit out there. While our ages may color what we see.
I saw an article on anti-aging medicine last year which suggested that if I’m alive in 25 years I can be expected to lice til 120, and if I live til 120, I’ll see 200.
5 paultaut // Oct 10, 2008 at 6:29 am
live not lice, or maybe live with Political lice.
6 KV // Oct 10, 2008 at 6:54 am
Paul - It really is not that material where posters are.
Yes, Ohio is killed, and whereever, we do industrial stuff, it is getting killed. Now also, finace and financial services are getting killed. Just think, what will be happening in all the outsource companies in India and other SE countries.
The punch line is simple: banks must lend, and suspend mark-to-market for a year. Get things in balance, otherwise, we will need 50 years to recover. Do you want to live that long and suffer?
If all of us live to be 200, the world population may reach, may be like, 50 billions. We will eat our own kind.
And, peak oil will happen so fast, that we would not even know what was oil!
7 Isaac // Oct 10, 2008 at 8:05 am
Jim, when the price of oil bottoms, and the markets begin to price in the combination of demand stabilization/ recovery and delayed oil production projects, do you have a projection as to which energy sectors will outperform others? Oil E & P, alt energy, etc?
8 robert essian // Oct 10, 2008 at 9:01 am
Richmond, Michigan home of the Blue Devils!
Diddo to you Jim on taking some cash a while back.
Took some of it and started buying stocks at a 4-5-6 to one ratio from July that are good growth stocks.
This too shall pass is an old saying, lets hope it still applies.
As human beings we must have a sense of humor and I for one am glad I have one.
500 point drops in the last hour before closing…Real funny stuff…Help someone…Peace
9 robert essian // Oct 10, 2008 at 10:01 am
Jim, as a serious mentor of mine I would like to know how you are today.
I know you don’t like to blog but a little message of how you are would be nice to hear.
Tell me to stop blogging, anything…
I for one hope you’re having as good a day as possible…
10 Tony // Oct 10, 2008 at 11:54 am
I’m 65 and living in Texas, near Houston. We have been fortunate to have oil go so high as the job market is good here (still). I still work (employed) and I have been through a couple of these big market slides. The US is a resiliant nation and consumer-oriented.
As stated above, this too, will pass. looks like “belt tightening’ is going on with auto use since demand is dropping. We need to see more of that. We will go into a recession, but will work out of it, no matter what the govenment does (or doesn’t do). I expect a bad holiday season from the standpoint of retail sales. I think 2009 is the year things will get back in alignment and turn around.
Tony
11 KV // Oct 10, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Tony - From your note, Ike was not a big issue where you live; however, there is no press at all about Ike. Some of pics on the web (NASA) don’t look good. Can you provide some color on Ike and its impact on oil and gas infrastructure? Some say it was Cat 3, but most of news say it was Cat 2.
Oil has been good all across the energy belt from Alaska, Canada, Rockies, Texas and Gulf. So many wells that were abandon because the production was too low are back on the stream, and secondary and tertiary recovery and exploration has been the game. At what oil price all this comes to a halt?
12 paultaut // Oct 10, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Most of what I read from various sources suggests Opec doesn’t really care about the demand destruction, it cares more about the suspension of Alt. Energy projects and drilling which is not their own. Their control is expanding with this implosion.
Besides, an Islamic world is all they really want.
They only significant thing I can Impart, The Riverboat Casinos are not crowded on weekends. This is really serious because even the addicts are staying away.
That’s what I mean by input about area conditions. Abnormal activity.
13 Isaac // Oct 10, 2008 at 3:34 pm
48, and from Seattle. My wife reports that the Apple store at the mall was the only one that was still packed. I suppose its important to have modern gadgets, so that you can look up news of the slow march towards 2 billion people from anywhere.
14 paultaut // Oct 10, 2008 at 10:20 pm
The midwest had, that’s past tense, had farming.
The Ag meltdown is leaving them between a rock and a hard place. a cple of years of riches, financing all new Ag equipment, I expect defaults or repossession of same at the least.
The Insurance Companies will implode next. They need to replace the assets which are required by law for the amount of insurance they can write, assets which they thought were safe have been decimated. State Insurance regulators will have to report the deficiencies and State Guaranty Funds will start liquidating them. Many policies will cease to exist because no one will have the capital to to reissue them as they expire.
This is a worst case scenario but it did occur in the 70’s.
15 Tony // Oct 11, 2008 at 8:19 am
Well, to add to the bits and pieces pointing to the impending recession, last night my wife and I only had to wait one hour at a local Carrabba’s restaurant to have dinner. The usual wait on friday night’s is over an hour.
As far as insurance company’s imploding, keep an eye on the IKE aftermath cost down here. This is going to be much bigger than you hear. I’ll bet to add capital the insurance companies will push our rates through the roof.
16 Tony // Oct 11, 2008 at 8:46 am
Quote: KV: “From your note, Ike was not a big issue where you live; however, there is no press at all about Ike. Some of pics on the web (NASA) don’t look good. Can you provide some color on Ike and its impact on oil and gas
infrastructure? Some say it was Cat 3, but most of news say it was Cat 2.”
KV: IKE was real bad, but I don’t know why the destruction is being downplayed so much. Cat 2 was the recored speed (110 MPH vs 111 MPH for a Cat 3). So much for that. The storm surge at the east side was Cat 4 size.
Where we live (80 miles north of Galvaston and the shore), we had lots of tree damage to homes and businesses. Power outages were to 2.2 million addresses. We had no power for a week.
The shoreline communities were devestated. The oil and gas industry made out pretty well except for flooding of some refineries and chemical plants. Seems like the industry had taken prior defensive steps to install protection to mitigate storm damage after Katrina and Rita.
I have a powerpoint presentation of photos of the hurricane damage aftermath if anyone would like to have it e-mailed to them. I can (will) e-mail it to Jim and he can forward it to whoever wants to see it. Or if you want me to send it to you directly, please e-mail me at aaluknavich [Email address: aaluknavich #AT# earthlink.net - replace #AT# with @ ].
Tony
17 KV // Oct 11, 2008 at 11:58 am
Tony - Thank you for updating on Ike. I am sorry that we, as a country, engage in manipulating national tragedies. I did see NASA pic on east side where the whole town was gone.
I will let Jim decide whether he would make your presentation available to all at his website before I send you an e-mail. I am hesitant because I don’t know how large a file with e-mail Verizon allows. I will find out before I ask you to send.
Again, thank you for an update.
18 paultaut // Oct 12, 2008 at 2:36 am
I’ve seen stills, massive damage.
Some Markets may be delayed or not open on Sunday night. That’s the gist I get from Asian sources.
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