Game Changing Battery Technology: Is It Here Now? Nearly every oil observer - Simmons, Maxwell, Jeff Rubin, many others, and least of all myself - see oil prices rising in 2 - 5 years, probably to new heights, if the global economy continues to recover.   That’s based on pretty accurate visibility of new oil supply over the next 5 - 7 years, fairly certain rates of decline in old fields, plus assumptions of demand growth rates for OECD, developing, and oil exporting economies.   I provided my own version of this …

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Here is very good news:  The U.S. Department of Energy will stop researching hydrogen fuel cells for cars.  Hydrogen fuel cells might be feasible if there were gigantic supplies of cheap wind and solar power available to make hydrogen.  It was never a near term concept.   In fact, when George Bush proposed a “moon shot” in transportation technology based on hydrogen, my take at the time was that it was being trotted out because of the desire of both Bush and some Detroit executives to defer the inevitable transition to …

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Stocks continue to recover from their panic bottoms of last November, many of them having doubled or more from then (case in point: General Electric).   All this seems very healthy to me given the lack of real world data indicating any sort of resumption in economic growth.  We get only data indicating a slowing in the rate of decline.  On top of that, we know there are more shocks to come:  huge default rates in loans on commercial real estate which lags the economy, the likely bankruptcy of both Chrysler …

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I’m scratching my head over $50 oil in the face of unprecedented levels of inventory both on land and at sea and with ample spare capacity of “underground inventory.”   Talk about speculative influence - speculation seems to be the only explanation for why oil is not, say, $35.  Speculators in oil futures are betting on an economic bottom begetting a recovery begetting greater oil demand.  Along with limited expansion capacity due to reduced investments in oil production and high rates of decline for older wells. Of course all that …

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I’m very enthusiastic about the potential for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV’s) to provide a big piece of the ultimate solution to America’s “oil addiction” problem.  The PHEV will have an extended-range all-electric capability and a small gasoline engine that will re-charge the battery when it begins to run low, thus providing ample total range on a tank of gas.  

A PHEV with a 20 mile electric-only range will allow many drivers do all their normal daily chores while using only minimal gasoline, if any - thus getting virtually …

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My recent post on “Battery Wars” was a broad overview of the ongoing global struggle to develop one or more cost-effective batteries to power a commercially viable electric or hybrid vehicle. Follow-on commentaries to that post have added more substance and I invite readers with knowledge to add their views on the viability of lithium-ion vs. current NiMH batteries - or any other alternatives. Because  lanthanum, a rare earth element, is essential to the NiMH battery, the business of mining of rare earth elements and related investments has …

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A horse race is in progress that will determine the next generation automotive power plant.  In order to break our oil addiction cars must transition to electric power, which means the power plant must be either all electric or plug-in hybrid electric.  Either one requires a battery with vastly better cost/benefit ratios than is currently available.  The two near term favorites to fill the bill are nickel metal hydride and lithium-ion; a long shot on the outside is ultracapacitors.    Competing battery technologies also include an improved lead-acid battery and …

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Our current investment trauma marks the end of an era of excesses in credit and real estate markets, of course.  But it also denotes that the United States is undergoing a far more general and significant transition - not only to a new government with a radically different agenda, but more lastingly into a whole new climate for investments. 

Gone is the era of wind-to-the-back investing powered since 1982 by continually lower interest rates and the virtuous influence of the baby boomer demographic bulge working its way through the U.S. economy …

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Here is a concise, erudite, and entertaining history of the lithium business and SQM, the world’s largest lithium supplier.  I have been unaware of this history of SQM and the contest for control of it between a Canadian potash giant and a Chilean gentleman related (sorry to report) to the late dictator Pinochet.  Some interesting investment perspectives regarding SQM include:   1. It’s lithium business is not presently prospering due to new, low priced Chinese competition, the incipient global depression that is reducing sales of consumer electronics that …

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As the global economy heads into terra incognita and the stock market tries to prove it has seen the worst my thoughts, for whatever they are worth, are: 1. Some economic observers such as John Thane, the CEO of Merrill Lynch, and JC Penney’s CEO Mike Ullman are saying the current economy is comparable with the Great Depression.   We need fiscal stimulus (since we’re nearly out of gas in terms of monitory stimulation potential).  How much?  If we’re going into a depression the quantity of fiscal stimulus needed …

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Here is a detailed discussion of battery technology economics, history and outlook by someone with a valid and informed viewpoint.  He concludes that lithium ion batteries may not be powering cars for a long time.   I tend to agree with that, particularly in view of the impacts of the current economic downturn.  He likes lead acid batteries better.  I think the more likely near term winner will be the current nickel hybrid batteries (NiMH) that are in hybrids on the market now and …

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A summary of Australia’s decision to embrace the future of the electric car as a matter of state policy, an  important step toward substituting electricity for oil,  is posted below.  The report originated on The Oil Drum and the complete report is here: Project Better Place founder Shai Agassi was in town last week announcing that Australia will become the third country, following Denmark and Israel, to implement the group’s vision of electric vehicles powered by renewable energy. Better Place and Macquarie Capital …

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Will the world run short of lithium as electric and electric-assisted cars use li-ion batteries?  That is the speculation debated in the article posted below:  October 31, 2008 4:00 AM PDT Electric-car race could strain lithium battery supply Posted by Martin LaMonica 40 comments The headlong rush to create electric cars for green-minded consumers may come with a significant economic and environmental cost. Lithium ion batteries–the same used in electronic gadgets and laptops–have become the preferred battery type for plug-in hybrids and …

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As I’ve noted previously, there is a potentially disruptive battery technology known as an ultracapcitor that is being developed by a rather secretive but apparently well financed company called EEStor in Texas.   It would store and then generate enormous quantities power compared with existing batteries, be capable of re-charging very rapidly, and hold a virtually infinite number of recharges.  If it sounds like science fiction, well … maybe it is.  There are a lot of sceptics.   On the other hand, if you’d described a digital camera to someone …

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Mr. Buffett’s investment tends to validate two concepts: that electric vehicles will become increasingly important and that a cost effective lithium ion battery can be part of the solution in the short term.  That is more good news for SQM, the world’s largest lithium supplier.  One negative to keep in mind is that demand for electric vehicles may not be robust unless and until the price of oil is seen to be high and going higher.   Recently that has been the case, but sentiment could change.   The economic weakness …

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