Game Changing Battery Technology: Is It Here Now? Nearly every oil observer - Simmons, Maxwell, Jeff Rubin, many others, and least of all myself - see oil prices rising in 2 - 5 years, probably to new heights, if the global economy continues to recover.   That’s based on pretty accurate visibility of new oil supply over the next 5 - 7 years, fairly certain rates of decline in old fields, plus assumptions of demand growth rates for OECD, developing, and oil exporting economies.   I provided my own version of this …

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I’m scratching my head over $50 oil in the face of unprecedented levels of inventory both on land and at sea and with ample spare capacity of “underground inventory.”   Talk about speculative influence - speculation seems to be the only explanation for why oil is not, say, $35.  Speculators in oil futures are betting on an economic bottom begetting a recovery begetting greater oil demand.  Along with limited expansion capacity due to reduced investments in oil production and high rates of decline for older wells. Of course all that …

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The first press report of a Chevy Volt test drive,  has been published here.  The Volt is America’s first plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.  What stood out in my mind was the very positive performance review in terms of power, acceleration, and the low center of gravity.  As I recently wrote, the surprising virtue of the new PHEV’s will be great performance.  The other advantage of the PHEV, as this report mentions, is that some drivers may not need to buy any gasoline.  That could save $1,000 a …

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I’m very enthusiastic about the potential for Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV’s) to provide a big piece of the ultimate solution to America’s “oil addiction” problem.  The PHEV will have an extended-range all-electric capability and a small gasoline engine that will re-charge the battery when it begins to run low, thus providing ample total range on a tank of gas.  

A PHEV with a 20 mile electric-only range will allow many drivers do all their normal daily chores while using only minimal gasoline, if any - thus getting virtually …

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A horse race is in progress that will determine the next generation automotive power plant.  In order to break our oil addiction cars must transition to electric power, which means the power plant must be either all electric or plug-in hybrid electric.  Either one requires a battery with vastly better cost/benefit ratios than is currently available.  The two near term favorites to fill the bill are nickel metal hydride and lithium-ion; a long shot on the outside is ultracapacitors.    Competing battery technologies also include an improved lead-acid battery and …

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The first available plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are hitting the road and turning people on.  The report below from Hawaii, a particularly oil-price-sensitive state (because importing oil is expensive), says that driving a PHEV is a huge turn-on for some people.  They are driving a modified Prius that uses technology similar to what will power GM’s Volt scheduled for introduction in 2010.  Unwilling to wait, people are modifying hybrids to make them plug-ins.  The car in this report runs on its battery alone up to about 35 …

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Our current investment trauma marks the end of an era of excesses in credit and real estate markets, of course.  But it also denotes that the United States is undergoing a far more general and significant transition - not only to a new government with a radically different agenda, but more lastingly into a whole new climate for investments. 

Gone is the era of wind-to-the-back investing powered since 1982 by continually lower interest rates and the virtuous influence of the baby boomer demographic bulge working its way through the U.S. economy …

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Here is a detailed discussion of battery technology economics, history and outlook by someone with a valid and informed viewpoint.  He concludes that lithium ion batteries may not be powering cars for a long time.   I tend to agree with that, particularly in view of the impacts of the current economic downturn.  He likes lead acid batteries better.  I think the more likely near term winner will be the current nickel hybrid batteries (NiMH) that are in hybrids on the market now and …

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The car business is being wrenched into its future by forces beyond its control.  One force is the destruction of demand for its current product offerings because of the bursting of the credit and housing bubbles combined with consumers’ knowledge that rapid technological developments are on the horizon.   This potent combination means consumers who do not absolutely need a new car (the vast plurality of all OECD consumers) don’t need to consider buying one.  Their disposable income and feelings of being wealthy have both been cut off at the knees.  …

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Will the world run short of lithium as electric and electric-assisted cars use li-ion batteries?  That is the speculation debated in the article posted below:  October 31, 2008 4:00 AM PDT Electric-car race could strain lithium battery supply Posted by Martin LaMonica 40 comments The headlong rush to create electric cars for green-minded consumers may come with a significant economic and environmental cost. Lithium ion batteries–the same used in electronic gadgets and laptops–have become the preferred battery type for plug-in hybrids and …

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An insightful report in the Financial Times posted below ascribes the recent rise in oil prices above $100 to the far greater than expected losses of oil production in the Gulf from hurricane damage.  As the report also mentions, oil prices have risen despite softness in the global economy.  There are many factors influencing the global price of oil, but considering only the hurricane-induced supply decline and the economy-induced demand decline would lead one to expect lower oil prices ahead as the impacts of the hurricanes recede while the …

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It appears that GM has fallen in love.  It is committing its future to a plug-in hybrid power plant, and its new beloved does look beautiful.  It promises the dual benefit of virtually unlimited miles per gallon of gasoline if the owner drives only 40 miles before recharging plus offering a standard 300 mile range with refueling available with ordinary, universally available gasoline if so desired.  Yes, if oil prices stay high and especially if they go much higher, the public will buy that proposition.  So GM’s planned Volt, the …

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As Reuters reports the li-on may not be ready for prime time until 2016.  If true, this would be devastating for General Motors, which is heavily depending on its li-on powered Volt: Lithium battery for many vehicles seen a ways off Mon Sep 15, 2008 8:42pm EDT   By Andrew Stern ARGONNE NATIONAL LABORATORY, Illinois (Reuters) - Vast improvements are needed to extend the life and lower the cost of lithium batteries before they can efficiently power vehicles, a U.S. government …

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Details of GM’s plans for the first-ever production model plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) were discussed in a report in today’s Financial Times.   The car is still scheduled for 2010 delivery.  Now we know that it’s 400 pound lithium-ion battery will have a 40 mile range and will be recharged on the move by a 4 cylinder gas engine which GM says will let the vehicle get about 150 miles per gallon.   I suppose the engine cuts in automatically when the battery gets down to a certain …

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The reality that’s been revealed by Russia’s Georgia adventure is captured in the following statement by Prof. Steven Blank at Penn. State: ““Russia’s energy objective is to monopolize all Caspian energy flows to Europe, so that it can then blackmail Europe and force political changes to European policy,” Prof. Blank said.

That is the new national security challenge presented by Russia that I discussed recently.  It’s historical and strategic dimensions are set forth in a excellent piece of journalism published today in the Globe and Mail and …

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