The stock market and the oil market both seem to engender feelings much like summer vacation time when I was a kid. Kinda boring, not much happening, a time to wander around, allow your attention dwell on whatever news of the day happens to come along and rest your mind before getting back to the “real world” some time around Labor Day. So we can be distracted by Gov. Sanford’s bazaar behavior, the political drama of health care reform, Berlesconi and his babes, or Wimbledon - all of which are …
Entries Tagged as 'Newsletter'
Newsletter 25: June 25, 2009
June 25th, 2009 · 76 Comments
Tags: Newsletter · Peak Oil · Price of oil · The Economy
Newsletter 24A: The Dark Side
May 19th, 2009 · 27 Comments
In the conclusions to my latest newsletter I noted that, “Nearly every analyst is saying the market has come too far too fast and needs a pullback. Great, let’s have one.” Today I want to consider the pullback scenario further. While it’s true that when “nearly every analyst” says something that thing is probably wrong, still I think it might be reasonable for investors to take steps to protect the portfolio gains of the past couple of months in preparation for a potentially serious pullback. Let’s hope that it …
Tags: Investment Ideas · Newsletter · The Economy
Newsletter 24: Where Will New Money Go?
May 12th, 2009 · 19 Comments
There is reportedly $4 trillion parked in U.S money market funds and other cash equivalents getting a return of approximately zero. That’s a large cash allocation. Breaking even seemed great a few months ago when most investors were being crushed by falling equity prices. But now pessimism is waning and the last couple of months’ returns have been record-setting. So cash is now starting to feel under-appreciated, pun intended. One principle of investing always holds true: funds must land somewhere. So cash funds will either be re-invested where they …
Tags: Investment Ideas · Newsletter · Predictions · The Economy
Newsletter 23: April 10, 2009
April 11th, 2009 · 47 Comments
Oil and Stocks Advance Further Oil and stocks seem to have bottomed as I suggested last month. Since that March 16th post, stocks are up another 8%, a scorchingly hot run on an annualized basis. Since March 6th the S&P is up over 21%. Meanwhile the price of oil has risen almost 35% since February 18th, not quite two months ago. More Gains to Come I continue to expect further gains for both stocks and oil - and eventually for natural gas - but each is a different …
Tags: Investment Ideas · Newsletter · Peak Oil · Price of oil
Newsletter #22: March 16, 2009
March 16th, 2009 · 26 Comments
Are stocks and oil bottoming?
Was last Tuesday’s 350-point rally the beginning of the end of the bear market or just a false “bear trap?” And a related question: “Did oil bottom at $33 and will it get re-tested?” Let’s see what we know.
Some things we know
Sometimes the objective observable facts can yield fairly clear conclusions. Usually that’s not the case. Usually you can use the available facts to make a decent argument in either direction. But sometimes the facts seem fairly clear.
For example, there should have been clarity about being …
Tags: Investment Ideas · Megaprojects · Newsletter · OPEC · Predictions · Price of oil · Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile, SA (SQM). · The Economy · oil demand · oil supply · price of natural gas
Newsletter 21: January 15, 2009
January 15th, 2009 · 22 Comments
Our current investment trauma marks the end of an era of excesses in credit and real estate markets, of course. But it also denotes that the United States is undergoing a far more general and significant transition - not only to a new government with a radically different agenda, but more lastingly into a whole new climate for investments.
Gone is the era of wind-to-the-back investing powered since 1982 by continually lower interest rates and the virtuous influence of the baby boomer demographic bulge working its way through the U.S. economy …
Tags: Energy Policy · Investment Ideas · NATURAL GAS · Newsletter · OPEC · Peak Oil · PetroBank (PBEGF or TSO: PBG) · Price of oil · Rare Earth Element Miners · Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile, SA (SQM). · batteries · hybrid vehicles
Newsletter 20: November 15, 2008
November 14th, 2008 · 7 Comments
As the global economy heads into terra incognita and the stock market tries to prove it has seen the worst my thoughts, for whatever they are worth, are: 1. Some economic observers such as John Thane, the CEO of Merrill Lynch, and JC Penney’s CEO Mike Ullman are saying the current economy is comparable with the Great Depression. We need fiscal stimulus (since we’re nearly out of gas in terms of monitory stimulation potential). How much? If we’re going into a depression the quantity of fiscal stimulus needed …
Tags: Investment Ideas · Natural Gas Stocks · Newsletter · OPEC · Peak Oil · Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile, SA (SQM). · The Economy · batteries · electric vehicles · oil supply
Newsletter #19: October 10, 2008
October 10th, 2008 · 15 Comments
Stocks are clearly in panic mode; prices no longer correlate remotely with valuations. My son asks me as the market tanks another 500 points who is buying. Someone has to be buying. It’s a brilliant question. I suppose the answer is that people who think the price being offered discounts all the risks of continued panic are buying. So the price must be dramatically lower - that’s the only price able to find a buyer.
What started the stock market tanking is the global credit market chaos about which we seem …
Tags: Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF) · Economic Strains of Peak Oil · Energy Policy · Investment Ideas · Newsletter · Price of oil
Newsletter #18: September 7, 2008
September 7th, 2008 · 14 Comments
Rough Seas This is just simply tough, this business of unwinding the radically leveraged bets of unregulated financial institutions - investments banks and hedge funds - and the unregulated bets of radically leveraged institutions - banks, Freddie, Fanny. Bear may be followed by Lehman. Now hedge funds are liquidating and dropping like pop-ups just past the infield as their investors pass the threshold of acceptable pain and call back what’s left of their funds. In the wake of hedge funds’ liquidating sales the real worth of great companies like …
Tags: ELECTRICITY · Investment Ideas · Newsletter · Russia · Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile, SA (SQM). · batteries · electrical distribution · electrical generation
Newsletter #17: August 5, 2008
August 4th, 2008 · 18 Comments
The economy, the stock market, and our understanding of the future direction for energy and transportation may all be on the brink of major changes . This letter will open a discussion of these ideas.
A Very Tough Month
Before turning to the future, I must confess that the immediate past month was most painful for the EIS portfolio. Oil prices hit a violent downdraft in July, which especially impacted my “options on futures” strategy. It declined in value by about 33%. Since the purpose of these options is to provide portfolio …
Tags: Economic Strains of Peak Oil · Investment Ideas · NG powered cars and trucks · Newsletter · Predictions · Ultracapacitors · batteries · drilling/service companies · electric vehicles · electrical generation · hybrid vehicles
Newsletter 16: July 5, 2008
July 5th, 2008 · 22 Comments
Tsunami Investing ….
Why Are Oil Prices Rising? “The Answer” Comes into Focus
June was a good month for energy stocks and for the EIS portfolio but the broad market tanked. The impact of high energy prices on both inflation and consumer discretionary spending is being reflected in stock prices. Energy pressures present a special risk to economic stability by coming on top of the twin collapses in the credit and real estate markets.
So far Mr. Market seems able to distinguish between the very healthy energy sector and the tenuous economy. …
Tags: Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF) · Investment Ideas · Newsletter · Peak Oil · oil supply
Newsletter 15: June 3, 2008
June 3rd, 2008 · 15 Comments
Whither the price of oil?
Peak Oil may be in the future but Peak Oil Awareness has arrived. I expect Time and Newsweek cover articles on Peak Oil any week now marking the official top in oil awareness. It has already made the covers of The Economist and Business Week, the leading indicators for magazine covers.
When WTI hit an intraday high over $135 a barrel everyone on the planet not personally involved in an earthquake, cyclone or primary election paid full attention. Apparently, this price level is high enough for a significant …
Tags: Megaprojects · Newsletter · Peak Oil · Shipping Companies · Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile, SA (SQM). · electric vehicles · oil demand · oil supply
Newsletter #14: May 2, 2008
May 2nd, 2008 · 18 Comments
Crunch Time Time for Natural Gas Current Oil Outlook It IS the dollar! First the April numbers. The EIS portfolio was up 11% for the month, about the same amount as the oil and services indexes, a bit better than the S&P. Year to date being up 8% is good relative performance. About 3% of it was due to the options on futures strategy. I added an option on some late 2011 natural gas futures contracts. I also disposed of most …
Tags: LNG · NATURAL GAS · Newsletter · OPEC · Predictions · Price of oil
Newsletter #13: April 6, 2008
April 7th, 2008 · 8 Comments
Much of this letter is about the economy and the stock market because both were front page news for much of the past month. Oil is not much in focus for the investing public. Oil has tended to rise in price when the focus is elsewhere.
Macro Economy
There is little question that the U.S. economy is falling into the pooper. It is going down with the consumer and with the price of her home. It won’t be saved by any bailout that has or will be passed …
Tags: Newsletter · Poverty and Oil (demand destruction) · Price of oil
EIS Newsletter # 12: March 4, 2008
March 4th, 2008 · 5 Comments
2008 Thus Far: A Preview of Coming Attractions
My concern has been that at some point shortages of oil will cause a falling-stocks, rising-oil phenomenon that will crush my oil related stocks along with the whole market. 2008 has started like that. Oil was up 6.34% as of 2/29 (per the ETF symbol OIL) but stocks were down 8.5% (in terms of the S&P 500 ETF symbol SPY). For oil-related stocks, the falling stock market trumped the rising oil market, as I have expected. IYE, a broad-based oil-stock ETF, was down …
Tags: Canadian Oil Sands Trust (COSWF) · Cree (CREE) · Newsletter · Peak Oil · electrical efficiency · ethanol · hybrid vehicles · price of natural gas


