According to this report by China View, China consumed a record quantity of oil products in Q1.  It is not surprising that the amount would be a record, but the percentage increase is immense.  Diesel imports were up 600%, incidentally. Some analysts believe Chinese oil use will slow down after the Olympics.  That may happen, but I suspect any slowdown would not be substantial in percentage terms.  After all, in a country of 1.3 billion people with thousands of huge construction projects under way at any given time, …

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Uncertainty has not been banished, but a few inevitabilities are now clear. Here are the certainties: 1.  Oil exporters led by Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico will not expand production much further. 2.  Oil exporters’ internal oil demand will soon cause supplies of oil on the export market to begin falling. 3.  Food based ethanol production will not expand much further. 4.  Oil sands production growth will be limited by environmental concerns. 5.  Costs to produce new off shore discoveries will continue to escalate.  5.  …

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from McClatchy:
GLOBAL ECONOMY
More demand for oil in Mideast hikes prices
Mideast oil producers increasingly consume their own oil to fuel their fast-growing economies, driving up oil prices.
Posted on Fri, Apr. 18, 2008
BY KEVIN G. HALL
khall [Email address: khall #AT# mcclatchydc.com - replace #AT# with @ ]
WASHINGTON –

Middle Eastern oil-producing nations are behind today’s record high oil prices, but not for the reason you might think. Taken together, oil-rich nations represent a bloc of fast-growing economies that are now sucking up new energy supplies almost as fast as they’re coming to market.

Together, the six nations that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council …

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Barreling Along

The Big Thirst

Joon Mo Kang

The weak dollar, worries about terrorism and speculation on commodity markets certainly played a role. But, of course, so did demand. Producers are struggling to pump as much as they can to quench the thirst not only of the developed world, but fast-growing developing nations like China and India, the two most populous countries. To many experts, the steadily rising price underscored longer-term fears about the future of a system that has supplied cheap oil for more …

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If you were perhaps wondering why oil prices are strong, this could be one reason.  Here is the full article from the AP: The Associated Press April 11, 2008 at 9:10 AM EDT SHANGHAI — China’s oil imports surged to a record 17.3 million tons in March, the government reported Friday, as the country nearly unseated Japan as the world’s second-largest buyer of foreign crude oil. China imported an average of just over 4 million barrels a day, according to calculations based on data from China’s …

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This morning I was lucky to hear a presentation in New York by Guy Sorman, a French writer, economist, and sociologist who has recently published a book on the "real" China called Empire of Lies: The Truth about China in the Twenty-first Century.  The emergence of China as a major player in the world economy is clearly the most important global economic development of the past decade. With global protests surrounding the Olympic torch run and questions about whether China’s growth will hit a speed bump, this is a good …

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With the recent Barron’s cover story predicting a major fall in the price of oil and other commodities due to a correction of speculative buying,  I am reminded that: 

   1.  American investors view the world like one of those New Yorker cartoon maps where America is Manhattan and places further away rapidly melt into obscurity.  In the minds of most investors, including Barron’s, what happens in America dominates the whole world.  So, Barron’s writes that there is speculation in commodities and America’s economy is getting weaker so commodities are headed …

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Matt Simmons recently summarized some of the causes and effects of Peak Oil.  His dramatic and informative slides are here.  Matt points out the world’s dependence on old giant fields, discusses decline rates using many graphic examples to indicate the challenge that new fields face in making up the losses of declining fields, points out the inexorable growth of demand and the strains on current production to meet demand, and indicates how cheap oil is compared with many other liquids we consume.  He goes on discuss the rise in oil demand caused by the new prosperity …

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CIBC World Markets’ energy team led by Jeff Rubin is at the forefront of Wall Street firms in understanding the current dynamics of oil and gas production, I believe. This report, published in January, 2008, is an important contribution to the megaprojects approach to peak oil analysis.  

The report should be read in full by any0ne interested in the oil markets. My gratitude to The Oil Drum for referencing this and a similar one by the Energy Watch Group.  While a summary does a disservice to the …

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Here are two European insights on current developments in the price of oil. One is from Barclays and the other by Chris Skrebowski who maintains a list of global oil fields under development (megaprojects) and edits Petroleum Review.  The reports are in close agreement.

The Oil and Gas Journal (2/11/08) reported that Barclays Capital, the investment banking arm of Barclays Bank, PLC has issued a report on the broad outlines of the current market for oil.  Their conclusion is that, “The rise in prices has been less about anything happening …

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According to the Russian News and Information Agency, January oil production in Russia was down .5% from a year ago.  Exports were up more significantly, by 1.7% indicating a draw down of inventory and increase in demand from customers of Russian oil.  There is no indication of whether it went to China or EU countries.

Here is the full report:

Russia’s oil output down 0.5%, gas production up 0.8% in January

16:16
|
05/ 03/ 2008

MOSCOW, March 5 (RIA Novosti) - Russia’s crude production declined 0.5%, year-on-year, in January to 41.35 million metric tons (830,000 …

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DB’s 2/27/08 report, “100mb/d peak oil market” was both a landmark and a disappointment.  A landmark because important people pay attention to DB and because they became the first to question the conventional wisdom of range-bound oil prices.  A disappointment because they pulled their punches on where they really think oil prices may go.

Yesterday DB had a conference call to discuss the report.  The first two questioners were an Exxon Mobil executive and a Treasury Department official.  In other words, The Powers That Be were paying attention.  Why the fuss?  …

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A consequence of NAFTA, whether unintended or not, seems to be the take-over of the Mexican used car market by old U.S. clunkers.  The trend is likely to lower Mexican fuel economy substantially and to mute the impact of higher efficiency cars being bought in the U.S.  That happens because the old, less fuel efficient cars that the new ones replace do not die; they are used in Mexico (and various other South and Central American countries).

Here is the full story from the L.A. Times:
In Mexico, old U.S. cars find …

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Sales of gas in the U.S. during the most recently reported week were 1% lower than a year ago.  It seems like a combination of the weak economy and historically high gas prices are in fact causing a slight decline in driving and/or a switch to more efficient vehicles.  Here is a report from USA Today.   Bear in mind that global fuel demand continues to rise due to very strong demand from developing countries. 

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As readers of this site know, I have the utmost respect for the views of Charlie Maxwell.  His recent interview with EnergyTechStocks.com  has been reported elsewhere, but in case anyone missed it, I recommend that you pay attention.  

It is fascinating to me that Charlie’s views are so congruent with the work that Chris Skrebowski has done using his megaprojects analysis to project peak oil and the timing of future stresses to the global economy from expected oil shortages. Here is a link to part one which discusses the degree …

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