The following report from Reuters suggests Iraqi reserves could be larger than Saudi reserves and three times as large as currently estimated.  I continue to believe that if there is any chance to mitigate the onset of Peak Oil it is the possibility that Iraq will resolve its politics and pass an oil law this year, issue deals to IOC’s next year and begin substantial increases in production by 2011.  Developing land sites can be accomplished with far greater speed than exploiting the off shore fields of …

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Iraq is looking like the world’s brightest near term hope for stemming high oil prices. It is seems to have raised production about 100 kbpd in March to about 2.4 mbpd, looks to increase it to 3 mbpd by the end of 2008 and hopes to hit 4.5 mbpd by 2013.  Here is a report from Newsweek.
Iraq boosts oil exports — and pressure to pay for rebuilding
By SINAN SALAHEDDIN

BAGHDAD

Iraq boosted its crude oil exports by 3.3 million barrels in March over the previous month, bringing in nearly $15.5 billion, …

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Saudi Arabia is considered the “swing producer” of oil because conventional wisdom presumes they have the spare capacity and the will to boost or reduce supply as global conditions require.  But some doubt KSA true capacity .

If KSA is actually constrained, Nigeria and Iraq may be the world’s real swing producers in two senses.  First, they both have the geological opportunity to increase production substantially over a period of just a few years.  Second, and more relevant in the short term, both countries face a real risk that political problems …

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A new book written by a team of experts provides a field-by-field detailed explication of the thesis that Iraqi oil reserves are substantially greater than previously thought. The proven reserves were officially put at 112 billion barrels in 2007 but the final figure could exceed 300 billion barrels. The proven reserves of the Kurdish region are expected to double within the next two years.

Iraq currently produces just over 2 mb/d, down from 2.5 mb/d prior to the U.S. invasion.  The authors believe it could boost production to 3.5 mb/d before …

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As we know, the future of Iraqi oil production will have a big impact on how tight global oil markets will be over the next five years.  About a third of the reserves are in the northern “Kurdish” part of the country centered around Kirkuk.  Saddam violently tossed the native Kurds out of Kirkuk, but now they are returning and paying cash to buy out the Arabs who occupied their old houses. 

A referendum will be held in Kirkuk later this year.  Will it be peaceful?  Kirkuk holds a very key card in …

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Here is an report by David Strahan of an interview with Robin West, the Chair of energy consulting firm PFC Energy.  In it, West offers the standard rationale for higher oil prices: the advent of peak oil.  He predicts 2015.   Just another data point.

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Increased ethnic tensions in Kirkuk come just as the Baghdad government halted oil sales to S. Korea until the S. Korean’s cancel an agreement they made to buy oil directly from the Kurdish region.   Whether or not tension over control of oil by the Kurds or by the central government can be settled amicably may be the most important issue affecting Iraqi oil exports over the next year or two.  It is one key to the global price of oil over the next couple of years. Below is a …

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Below is an excerpt from the Eurasia Group’s 2008 global political forecast.  Nigeria and Iraq could each increase oil production significantly if their internal political problems were to be peacefully resolved. It thus behooves oil investors to keep fairly close tabs on developments in both countries. 

In both cases an aggrieved minority holds the key.  In Nigeria MEND and other Delta forces are keeping many hundreds of thousands of barrels per day off the market because the Delta people are not getting their fair share of oil funds while they …

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In Davos an Iraqi official said that last year’s 400,000 barrel/day crude production increase will be followed by a similar increase in 2008.   (The arithmetic in the article that follows is not correct.)

It behooves oil investors to pay attention to Iraqi developments.  I have said that “peak oil” has not yet arrived.  The reason in large part is because both Iraq and Nigeria are capable of huge production increases if above-ground facts would permit it.  We are seeing this happen in Iraq, which is one reason that oil prices …

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Click here.

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Under the deal, Iran would buy 100,000 barrels of Iraqi crude to be refined in the southern port of Bandar Abbas, then sell the product back to Iraq. The accord would have no upper limit on quantities.  For full article, click here.

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