There is much information about megaprojects at Wikipedia including a summary of their own volunteers’ compilation of megaprojects by year out to 2015.  It is interesting that the peak of megaproject oil production is scheduled for 2008, a year they think will feature a long list of non-OPEC projects in a wide variety of countries.  Maybe many of these projects have encountered delays or perhaps they are scheduled for later in the year.  Whatever, there seems to be a disconnect between the vast amount of oil scheduled to come on stream this …

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By Yuji Okada and Shigeru Sato April 7 (Bloomberg) — Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil’s state-controlled oil company, will invest $15 billion on overseas oil projects, aiming to double its crude oil production to capture growing demand in Asia and South America. The Rio de Janeiro-based company plans to expand its oil output to 4.15 million barrels a day by 2015 from the current 2 million barrels, Jose …

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The keeper of "magaprojects" data spoke in Africa recently in his typical no-nonsense and undramatic style.  Among other aspects of his peak oil predictions are that exports will peak before production does and that "resource nationalism" (which I call "hoarding") an important factor in global oil supplies.  He also added a subtle feature to the peak oil concept: that oil may peak on a seasonal basis before it peaks completely.  We may be witnessing that phenomenon very shortly, if it has not already occurred.  Here is the full …

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CIBC World Markets’ energy team led by Jeff Rubin is at the forefront of Wall Street firms in understanding the current dynamics of oil and gas production, I believe. This report, published in January, 2008, is an important contribution to the megaprojects approach to peak oil analysis.  

The report should be read in full by any0ne interested in the oil markets. My gratitude to The Oil Drum for referencing this and a similar one by the Energy Watch Group.  While a summary does a disservice to the …

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This report from Energy Watch Group is far more pessimistic than any other I have seen. They believe there will be enormous delays in new megaprojects coming on stream and that the decline rates in older fields will be faster than others think, particularly in the Middle East.  So, for example, EWG says oil production in 2020 will be 58 mb/d compared with the IEA estimate of 105 mb/d.  This is a sort of doomsday scenario.  Interestingly, their predictions are based on similar themes in regard to megaproject …

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Click here for ten year graph through 2011

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click here.

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Skrebowski’s comprehensive model balances incremental new oil flows
with shrinking production for existing fields. Net increases seem possible
for a few more years, he said, but by 2010-2011, declines will start
outweighing gains—and that’s when the world will hit the peak.  click here.

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Saudi spare capacity is somewhat of a mystery.  Megaprojects will add to capacity substantially in 2007 - 2009, then new oil thins out.  click here.

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This latest update of the megaprojects database has been expanded to include all projects with peak production of 40,000 b/d or over.  The database currently identifies 24.8mn b/d of new capacity due to come onstream between January 2007 and December 2012. read full article

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Most famously he projects oil production capacity growth by tracking all the world’s
‘megaprojects’ scheduled to come online. This data he compares to known global depletion rates, to see how projected oil production will compare with
expected growth in demand, or indeed when global oil production looks likely to peak.

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An essay by Skrebowski and list of his Megaprojects as of  4/06.  click here

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