Standard Wisdom: Declining Oil Prices….

    The New Energy Bill’s Impact….

         New Data Point for the Decline Rate……

            What the Fundamentals Say about Future Oil Prices…

                My Prediction for Oil Prices for the Next Five Years

A lot of observers are looking for lower oil prices in the short term. They cite:

   - a looming recession,

   - 2003 - 2007 higher prices resulting in demand reductions and supply  increases,

   - the end of dollar weakness,

   - the end of Chinese preparations for the 2008 Olympics, and

   - reduced geopolitical tensions, especially …

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Experts say the sharp growth, if it continues, means several of the world’s most important suppliers may need to start importing oil within a decade… click here.

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Click here for an analysis of oil importing and exporting statistics for the top ten producing and consuming countries.

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Click here for ten year graph through 2011

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Click here.  Matt discusses current supply and demand dynamics indicating Peak Oil is not far away.

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Click here.  Expert oil observer Chris Skrebowski comments on the recently released alarming EWG report on Peak Oil.

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Click here.  This German group’s careful study reports that Peak Oil has already occurred. 

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Click here.  German think tank Energy Watch Group issues credible new study with dramatic warning that oil production peaked in 2006

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click here.

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World total liquids supply production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will also continue increasing.   Click here.

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Skrebowski’s comprehensive model balances incremental new oil flows
with shrinking production for existing fields. Net increases seem possible
for a few more years, he said, but by 2010-2011, declines will start
outweighing gains—and that’s when the world will hit the peak.  click here.

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Saudi spare capacity is somewhat of a mystery.  Megaprojects will add to capacity substantially in 2007 - 2009, then new oil thins out.  click here.

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Most famously he projects oil production capacity growth by tracking all the world’s
‘megaprojects’ scheduled to come online. This data he compares to known global depletion rates, to see how projected oil production will compare with
expected growth in demand, or indeed when global oil production looks likely to peak.

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An essay by Skrebowski and list of his Megaprojects as of  4/06.  click here

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