Churchill’s assessment applies to the current oil situation: this is the beginning of the end of OPEC.  That much is obvious; the more interesting question is “why?”

OPEC was founded in 1960 to protect the interest of its members, major oil exporting nations.  That interest is to stabilize world oil prices at levels that balance their competing objectives to maximize both long term oil demand and the short term oil price.   The idea was to keep enough oil off the market during glut periods to elevate the price and insert enough …

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  Crunch Time     Time for Natural Gas         Current Oil Outlook             It IS the dollar! First the April numbers. The EIS portfolio was up 11% for the month, about the same amount as the oil and services indexes, a bit better than the S&P. Year to date being up 8% is good relative performance. About 3% of it was due to the options on futures strategy. I added an option on some late 2011 natural gas futures contracts. I also disposed of most …

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The March/April edition of Harvard Magazine contains an article by Michael B. McElroy, Professor of Environmental Studies titled, “Saving Money, Oil, and the Climate: Using non-fossil energy sources to power our vehicles.”  It’s a survey course on the future of cars and trucks packed with good data and argumentation on why future considerations of cost and environmental safety will required a move away from petroleum.

Prof. McElroy comes out in pretty much the same place I have.  To whit: eventually cars and trucks will be all-electric and electricity will be supplied …

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Uncertainty has not been banished, but a few inevitabilities are now clear. Here are the certainties: 1.  Oil exporters led by Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico will not expand production much further. 2.  Oil exporters’ internal oil demand will soon cause supplies of oil on the export market to begin falling. 3.  Food based ethanol production will not expand much further. 4.  Oil sands production growth will be limited by environmental concerns. 5.  Costs to produce new off shore discoveries will continue to escalate.  5.  …

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Standard Wisdom: Declining Oil Prices….

    The New Energy Bill’s Impact….

         New Data Point for the Decline Rate……

            What the Fundamentals Say about Future Oil Prices…

                My Prediction for Oil Prices for the Next Five Years

A lot of observers are looking for lower oil prices in the short term. They cite:

   - a looming recession,

   - 2003 - 2007 higher prices resulting in demand reductions and supply  increases,

   - the end of dollar weakness,

   - the end of Chinese preparations for the 2008 Olympics, and

   - reduced geopolitical tensions, especially …

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